In a world fraught with tough choices, the United Kingdom finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with the pressing issue of immigration and its far-reaching implications on the nation's economy. The recent report from think tank Policy Exchange has reignited the debate on whether the UK should embrace higher net migration or fundamentally re-think its economic model.
Politicians often speak of the necessity for tough choices, acknowledging the absence of free lunches in the complex realm of policymaking. However, despite the acknowledgment of tough decisions, the prevailing culture of wanting it all now poses a challenge for policymakers seeking popular support.
The hotly debated topic of immigration takes center stage, not only in the UK but also in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the US. The Office for National Statistics' recent population projections reveal an expected rise to 70 million by 2026, a decade earlier than previously predicted, with net migration accounting for over 90% of the increase.
One perspective argues that embracing higher levels of migration aligns with the principles of globalization, where workers from less affluent nations seek better opportunities in countries offering higher wages and superior living standards. Proponents argue that migrants contribute to economic growth, filling roles that local workers may be reluctant to take on.
However, the report raises a crucial point: if the UK opts for a significant increase in population through migration, it must be prepared to invest in the necessary infrastructure. This includes building more schools, hospitals, and, most notably, houses. The current rate of home construction is already insufficient to meet current demands, let alone the projected surge in population.
To keep pace with housing demand, the UK may need to consider tough choices such as liberalizing planning rules and potentially building on the green belt. Failure to address housing supply adequately could lead to rampant house-price inflation, increased overcrowding, and a growing divide between housing haves and have-nots.
Alternatively, the report suggests that serious immigration controls could be an alternative solution, potentially returning to late 20th-century levels of net migration. However, this approach comes with its own set of consequences, impacting industries that rely on foreign labor, such as care homes, universities, and businesses.
The dilemma is stark: embrace higher net migration and overhaul housing policies, or reduce migration to late 20th-century levels and re-imagine the economy. Both choices come with challenges, costs, and implications for various sectors. Policymakers must grapple with this reality, recognizing that tough choices cannot be evaded, and the decisions made today will shape the future of the United Kingdom.