top of page

No, Russia Is Not Winning the War in Ukraine



There has been a lot of discussion and attention focused on the ongoing crisis in Ukraine between Russia and the Ukrainian government. While some claim that Russia is winning the battle, a closer look reveals the difficulties and constraints that make a Russian victory in Ukraine improbable.


The West contributed to the circumstances that led to the war while Russia started hostilities. However, rather than real concern for fatalities or the advancement of democracy, support for Ukraine is driven more by geopolitical interests. Western initiatives, such as enlarging NATO and arming Ukraine, have heightened Russian anxiety and contributed to the conflict's escalation.


Moscow committed severe errors at the outset of the fight. But Russia swiftly learned from these mistakes and built formidable defences, including fortifications and holding a manufacturing and material advantage. The major lines of Russian defence have not been breached by Ukrainian offensives, and the delivery of armaments by Western partners has not reduced Moscow's tactical advantage.


The Ukrainian military's capacity to continue its efforts is hampered by a lack of personnel and equipment as well as the weariness of their Western backers. The inability to find qualified replacements, population decline, and difficulty in acquiring air superiority further weaken Ukraine's position.


The situation in Ukraine is the subject of debates and speculative theories, but the data points to the extreme improbability of Russia winning the battle. Moscow has overcome its initial errors by erecting solid defences, holding onto a material advantage, and picking up from past failures.


Additionally, they are prevented from making a significant breakthrough by Ukrainian constraints, such as a lack of labour and resources. The possibility of escalation and Russia's historical experiences further indicate that a quick victory against Ukraine is unlikely.


Given these circumstances, it is imperative that the West and the international community hold sincere consultations with Moscow in order to find a peaceful settlement and establish a solid security framework. Compromises may be necessary for a practical agreement.


In the end, the United States and its allies should prioritise the security and interests of their own citizens, work towards de-escalation, encourage burden-shifting, and motivate European states to take a more active role in their defence.


It is crucial to recognise that all sides involved in the crisis in Ukraine bear a portion of the blame for its destructive effects. The international community can aid in preventing additional casualties and fostering a more stable situation by pursuing diplomatic solutions.


Comments


bottom of page