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Navigating Uncertainty: What Lies Ahead for Iran?

Updated: May 26



The sudden demise of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in a helicopter crash sent shockwaves through the nation. As Iran grapples with grief, it also faces critical questions about its future leadership.

 

According to Iran’s constitution, when the president passes away, the first vice president assumes temporary leadership. In this case, Mohammad Mokhber stepped into the role of acting president.


Together with the judiciary chief and the parliament speaker, they organized a new presidential election slated for June. This election will be closely watched, especially given the recent record low turnout in parliamentary elections.

 

The more critical question is who will succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the Supreme Leader. Khamenei, who is 85 years old, has been at the helm for decades. Raisi was widely considered a potential successor due to his relative youth, loyalty, and commitment to the system. His untimely death leaves a void in the succession process.

 

The Assembly of Experts, responsible for choosing the new Supreme Leader, will play a crucial role. No names are in the running yet. However, the choice of the next Supreme Leader will significantly impact Iran’s trajectory.

 

Khamenei has already assured the Iranian people that there will be no disruption in the country’s affairs. The system aims to maintain functionality while seeking a new leader who can uphold conservative unity and loyalty.


The state funeral for Raisi served as an occasion to signal continuity. Iran’s ruling conservatives understand that the world is watching, and they want to demonstrate stability during this transition.

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