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Expect More Major Losses for Russia in 2024

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been ongoing for nearly two years, with both sides claiming different narratives about the war's trajectory and outcomes.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently remarked that despite the feeling of Russia winning, Moscow was enduring heavy battlefield losses. However, these claims lacked substantiation and were refuted by Russian officials, who asserted an improvement in their position on the front lines.


Zelenskiy's assertions of heavy Russian losses, particularly in Avdiivka, coupled with the breakthrough of Ukrainian forces in bypassing a Russian Black Sea blockade for grain exports, indicate a different perspective on the conflict's actual dynamics. He highlights the significance of countering Russian strengths in Crimea and protecting key cities on the eastern front as priorities for Ukraine in 2024.


President Putin has laid out Russia's objectives in the conflict, including Ukraine's "denazification, demilitarisation, and its neutral status," emphasizing that the campaign would continue until these goals are achieved. This firm stance from the Kremlin suggests a prolonged conflict unless a substantial compromise is reached.


Zelenskiy's argument that if Ukraine loses, it would embolden Russia to advance against other countries echoes the geopolitical stakes involved. This viewpoint posits Ukraine's defense as a global concern, emphasizing the need for broader international support in countering Russian aggression.


However, despite Zelenskiy's push for increased global assistance to Ukraine, he acknowledges obstacles in garnering additional support from the United States and the European Union. This constraint could potentially impede Ukraine's efforts to defend itself against Russia's incursion.


Moreover, Zelenskiy's assertion that Russia's readiness for peace talks is not driven by righteousness but rather by a need to replenish its military resources points towards the ongoing strain on Russia's military capabilities due to the protracted conflict.


In assessing the situation, the coming year could witness more major losses for Russia due to several factors:


Continued Ukrainian Resistance: Despite setbacks, Ukraine has demonstrated resilience and achieved strategic breakthroughs. If they manage to sustain this resistance and potentially garner increased international support, it could prolong the conflict and inflict more losses on Russia.


Geopolitical Implications: The global perception of Ukraine's defense as a broader global concern could pressure Russia to reassess its strategy, especially if there are concerted efforts to isolate and sanction Russia further due to its actions in Ukraine.


Resource Depletion for Russia: The strain on Russia's military resources due to sustained engagement in the conflict may lead to logistical challenges and fatigue among Russian forces, potentially resulting in increased losses.


However, the situation remains fluid, and the outcome of the conflict depends on various geopolitical, military, and diplomatic factors. The lack of a clear resolution and the entrenched positions of both sides indicate that the conflict may persist, leading to more losses for Russia in the new year.


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