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A “Frozen Conflict” in Ukraine Offers No Real Solution



According to recent reports, the US administration is mulling about the prospect of a frozen conflict in Ukraine, much like there is one on the Korean peninsula.


According to US officials, this tactic tries to create boundaries that both parties agree to not cross, resulting in a protracted standoff. Although this strategy can seem politically acceptable, it prolongs the suffering of the Ukrainian people by failing to address the fundamental problems.


A Limited Counteroffensive

In its counteroffensive against Russia, Ukraine is not expected to gain much ground, according to the Biden administration. This lack of territorial gains supports the idea that a conflict that is frozen would be the best result. Nevertheless, by embracing this strategy, the administration is essentially giving up on the idea of re-establishing Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a core objective of the international community.


There is no lasting solution to the ongoing problem in Ukraine amid a frozen conflict. Although it may momentarily lessen hostilities' ferocity, it does nothing to address their underlying causes or stop further escalation. By sustaining the status quo, the underlying conflicts and grievances go unsolved, increasing the likelihood of future bloodshed. The human tragedy will continue as long as the Ukrainian people are suffering, civilians are being displaced, and the economy is struggling.


Regardless of whether the conflict is frozen or thawed, despite the US's claims to be planning for the long term, sustained support for Ukraine without a clear route to resolution is insufficient. While arming Ukraine and bolstering its military could offer temporary deterrence, it offers little to bring about a durable peace. The Biden administration runs the risk of escalating the situation and widening the gulf between Russia and Ukraine by concentrating solely on military assistance and ignoring diplomatic attempts.


Lack of Diplomatic Efforts

The US and its allies have discouraged peace negotiations and have no intention of looking for a diplomatic settlement. This strategy disregards the value of discussion and dialogue in settling disputes. To reach a comprehensive and amicable agreement that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and takes account of Russia's concerns, diplomacy should take precedence. Neglecting diplomatic channels not only impedes peace chances but also damages the stature of international institutions and norms.


Ukraine would lose a lot more territory if the conflict were to be stopped along the current front lines than if a settlement had been reached soon after the invasion. Additionally, far than promoting stability, the idea to further arm Ukraine with prospective NATO guarantees may increase tensions with Russia. Ukraine's membership in NATO was a contributing factor in Russia's invasion of that nation. Moscow is unlikely to accept a frozen conflict with growing NATO engagement, increasing the likelihood of additional action.

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